Expert judgment elicitation is often required in probabilistic decision making and the evaluation of risk. One measure of the quality of probability distributions given by experts is calibration-the ...

Probability of harm (POH) is critical to appropriately scoring risks, so how should it be done? POH needs to show all probabilities, not suppress them.

Proportional reasoning failures seem to constitute most errors in probabilistic reasoning, yet there is little empirical evidence about its role for attaining probabilistic knowledge and how to ...

Where Aa = female genotype close genotypeThe alleles that an organism has for a particular characteristic, usually written as letters. Probability close probabilityThe extent to which something is ...