FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Ron DeSantis Ron DeSantis Probably Didn't Turn Florida Red The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor.

And that’s basically it! FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages can really be thought of as two different models: one that measures any biases resulting from the polls’ underlying data ...

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of… ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

2024 Election Do Americans Like Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis? We’re tracking the favorability ratings of declared — and potential — 2024 presidential candidates.

Josh Hermsmeyer was a football writer and analyst.

The NFL has had quite an eventful year. In fact, the 2022 season has been characterized by a series of controversies that, when taken together, seem like a micr… ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

House Republicans The 5 Main Factions Of The House GOP And how they’re likely to govern for the next two years.

Even with an additional senator going into 2023, the 2024 map is still so bad for Democrats that keeping the Senate for years to come will be a fairly tough order. The party’s prospects might ...

When the 2022 World Cup made its debut on Sunday, it kicked off one of the most significant in-game uses of technology in sports history. All tournament long, m… ...